Updated March 2018
This section provides an overview for natural gas prices:
- In 2017, the Henry Hub price increased by an estimated 28 per cent relative to 2016. As indicated in Table 1.2 [HTML], the Henry Hub price is projected to increase over the forecast period, driven primarily by U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and natural gas pipeline exports.
- Despite high volatility in 2017 due to transportation disruptions on TransCanada Corporation’s Mainline pipeline system, the AECO-C price increased by an estimated 10 per cent in 2017 relative to 2016. The AECO-C price is projected to increase over the forecast period in step with the Henry Hub price forecast, driven primarily by domestic demand from the oil sands, fuel switching for electricity generation, and pipeline expansion.
- The AECO-C and Henry Hub price differential widened in 2017 to an estimated US$1.26 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Over the forecast period, the differential is anticipated to remain wider than recent levels (2009–2016) as the Henry Hub price becomes a waterborne price, reflecting that LNG will connect North American natural gas production to international markets and the United States will become the third-largest LNG exporter by 2020.