Updated June 2023
Figure S1.3 shows historical and forecast prices for Canadian Light Sweet (CLS).
Summary
The average annual price of CLS in 2022 was Cdn$119.72 per barrel (bbl), an increase of 49 per cent from 2021.
The base-case for CLS is projected to decrease to Cdn$99.38/bbl in 2023, easing to Cdn$96.52/bbl in 2024 and rebounding to $97.84/bbl by 2032.
The low- and high-price cases for CLS align with the assumptions for the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) forecast.
The low-price case forecast for CLS is Cdn$63.86/bbl in 2023, Cdn$61.47/bbl in 2024, and Cdn$57.67/bbl by 2032.
The high-price case forecast for CLS is Cdn$154.67/bbl in 2023, Cdn$151.54/bbl in 2024, and Cdn$165.99/bbl by 2032.
The price trajectory for CLS is expected to follow the WTI trend after accounting for transportation costs, exchange rate, and regional market conditions.
In 2022
Price differentials: The WTI-CLS differential was US$2.04/bbl in 2022, down from US$3.87/bbl in 2021.
The WTI-CLS price differential in January 2022 was US$2.38/bbl and fluctuated around US$2/bbl throughout 2022 before ending at US$3.59/bbl in December.
Forecast for 2023 to 2032
With sufficient pipeline capacity available, the WTI-CLS price differential should remain narrow and is anticipated to be around US$3.95/bbl in 2023. The price differential is expected to stay relatively stable from 2024 to 2028, increasing slightly in the latter years of the forecast.
Low- and High-Price Cases
The price trajectory of CLS follows the forecast price of WTI but differentiated by transportation costs, regional factors, and exchange rates. The low- and high-price cases reflect near- and long-term volatility and are estimated using a 90 per cent confidence interval.
Learn More
- Methodology
- Data [XLSX]