Updated September 2026
Prices
WTI: The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price declined by 14% in 2025, averaging US$64.84 per barrel (bbl). The decrease was primarily driven by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied non-member countries (collectively referred to as OPEC+) increasing production, which contributed to higher global crude oil inventories. Trade policy uncertainty also weighed on global economic activity, tempering growth in crude oil demand.
Global crude oil prices are expected to rebound to an average of US$84.00/bbl in 2026 as conflict in the Middle East disrupts regional crude oil supplies. The WTI price is forecast to average US$73.00/bbl in 2027 and US$70.00/bbl in 2028 as the conflict subsides, oil supply recovers and commercial and strategic oil inventories are replenished. Thereafter, prices are expected to increase gradually, reaching US$80.50/bbl by 2035 as oil continues to be demanded globally.
WCS: The Western Canadian Select (WCS) price decreased by 12% in 2025, averaging US$53.70/bbl, largely reflecting the decline in the WTI price. The differential between WTI and WCS narrowed to an average of US$11.14/bbl in 2025, compared with US$14.73/bbl in 2024, reflecting the additional crude oil takeaway capacity provided by the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline.
The WCS price is forecast to rebound to an average of US$71.00/bbl in 2026, supported by higher global crude oil prices. The WTI/WCS differential is expected to widen modestly in 2026 due to record oil sands production and the filling of the expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline. The WCS price is forecast to ease to US$60.00/bbl in 2027 and US$57.00/bbl in 2028 as global crude oil prices moderate. Further widening of the WTI-WCS differential is not expected beyond 2026 as additional pipeline capacity comes online over the forecast period. Thereafter, the WCS price is expected to increase gradually, reaching US$67.50/bbl by 2035.
Henry Hub: The Henry Hub price, the benchmark for U.S. natural gas, rose by 51% in 2025, averaging US$3.63 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). The price increase was driven by growing U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and strong domestic demand.
The Henry Hub price is forecast to increase modestly to US$3.70/MMBtu in 2026, supported by stronger U.S. residential and power generation demand and expanding U.S. LNG export capacity. The price is expected to average US$3.85/MMBtu in 2027 as additional U.S. LNG export facilities come online. However, rising U.S. natural gas production is expected to moderate price gains. Thereafter, Henry Hub prices are forecast to increase gradually, supported by growing demand from U.S. power generation, data centres, and industry, reaching US$4.54/MMBtu by 2035.
AECO-C: In 2025, the Alberta local natural gas price (AECO-C) increased to Cdn$1.74 per gigajoule (GJ), primarily driven by strong oil sands fuel demand and the commencement of LNG exports from LNG Canada. Despite the increase, the price differential between Henry Hub and AECO-C price widened to US$2.32/MMBtu as rising supply and elevated inventories weighed on Alberta gas prices.
The AECO-C price is forecast to increase to Cdn$2.73/GJ in 2026, supported by growing LNG exports from British Columbia and continued strength in oil sands demand. The Henry Hub/AECO-C differential is expected to narrow to US$1.60/MMBtu in 2026. Thereafter, AECO-C is forecast to rise gradually, reaching Cdn$3.99/GJ by 2035, while the differential stabilizes near US$1.30/MMBtu.
Total Capital Expenditures
Total capital expenditures were Cdn$32.4 billion in 2025, a 1.6% increase from 2024. Improved market access resulting from the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion prompted expenditure growth in the oil sands sector, while increased drilling for natural gas and natural gas liquids was supported by rising gas prices and higher demand for diluent to transport oil sands as operators continue to target liquid-rich areas.
From 2026 onward, enhanced market access due to additional pipeline optimizations from Trans Mountain and Enbridge, as well as expected long-term growth in crude oil prices, are expected to provide opportunities for further investment in crude oil and oil sands projects. Higher natural gas prices and increased demand for diluent to transport oil sands are expected to drive investment for natural gas liquids. Expansions, debottlenecking, new drilling, and continued improvements in operational efficiency are expected to support oil sands investment growth.
Figures
Figure S1.1 shows the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price.
Figure S1.2 shows the Western Canadian Select crude oil price.
Figure S1.3 shows the Canadian oil price differential.
Figure S1.4 shows the Henry Hub natural gas price.
Figure S1.5 shows the AECO-C natural gas price.
Figure S1.6 shows the Alberta oil and gas, oil sands, and emerging resources capital expenditure.
Figure S1.7 shows the U.S. - Canadian dollar exchange rate.
