Crude Bitumen

Updated June 2025

Within this section

Highlights

Production: Raw bitumen production increased by 4.3% in 2024 to 565.4 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 3557.8 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). In 2024, mined bitumen production increased by 4.4% to 273.4 103 m3/d, and in situ production increased by 4.2% to 292.0 103 m3/d.

By 2034, total raw bitumen production is forecast to increase to 645.3 103 m3/d (4060.6 103 bbl/d). Future production growth is supported by improved operational efficiency, increased transportation takeaway (pipeline) capacity, and favourable oil prices.

Number of wells: The number of producing wells increased by 3.6% to 10 737 in 2024.

Demand: Total Alberta refinery demand in 2024 (including upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen, crude oil, and pentanes plus) was 91.4 103 m3/d (575.0 103 bbl/d). Marketable bitumen (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen) provided 68.3 103 m3/d (429.8 103 bbl/d), or 74.7%, of the total Alberta refinery demand. The remaining marketable bitumen was removed from the province. Alberta refinery demand for marketable bitumen is expected to remain steady with consistent refinery throughputs over the forecast period. Removals are projected to increase throughout the forecast period.

Tariff Scenarios

Because of significant uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, this year’s report examines two scenarios: a short-term tariff uncertainty scenario (base case) and a one-year tariff scenario (tariff case). The primary difference between these scenarios lies in their tariff assumptions.

  1. Base case: This scenario assumes business as usual and no tariffs. However, the U.S. tariff threats on energy products (oil and gas) persist throughout the first half of 2025 but are ultimately averted through diplomatic negotiations by midyear. Consequently, energy supply and demand are minimally affected.
     
  2. Tariff case: This scenario assumes a 10% U.S. tariff on energy products (oil and gas) and 25% tariffs on other Canadian goods imposed in the first half of 2025 despite diplomatic efforts. This scenario includes subsequent U.S. and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, other nontariff measures1 , and additional U.S. tariffs on other trading partners. All tariffs and nontariff measures between Canada and the United States persist until the end of the first quarter of 2026 before mostly being phased out as the review or renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. It is expected tariffs will have some long-term effects and structural changes to the global economy (changes in trade and investment flows).

These tariff assumptions affect prices, costs, commodity profitability, investment, supply and demand, project risk factors, and commercial start dates (where applicable) for most chapters of the report, including comparisons of the outcomes of these scenarios.

1 Nontariff measures can include quotas or restrictions on imported goods (i.e., liquor), export taxes on electricity, and changes in consumer and business behaviour (i.e., buying Canadian).