Updated June 2025
Figure S4.8 shows the demand history and forecast for Alberta refineries and removal of crude oil from Alberta.
Demand
In 2024
Alberta experienced slightly weakened crude oil demand in 2024, which aligns with weaker economic growth nationally and unexpected refinery closures caused by extreme weather emergencies. Alberta’s demand for crude oil decreased from 18.8 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 118.6 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d) in 2023 to 17.8 103 m3/d (112.3 103 bbl/d) in 2024.
Figure S4.9 shows the 2024 throughput volumes for Alberta’s operating refineries, with a total throughput of 91.4 103 m3/d (575.0 103 bbl/d) crude oil equivalent. This represents a 103% utilization rate of refinery capacity.
The total throughput consisted of
- 25% crude oil and pentanes,
- 62% synthetic crude oil, and
- 13% nonupgraded bitumen.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Alberta's crude oil demand is expected to remain steady from 2025 to 2034, holding at 17.8 103 m3/d (112.3 103 bbl/d). This stability is attributed to the absence of new refineries or significant refinery expansions in Alberta, signalling a sustained demand for crude oil.
Removals
In 2024
In 2024, removals increased by 6.1% to 66.4 103 m3/d (417.7 103 bbl/d), with growth primarily driven by the 5% fall in Alberta refinery demand as production growth persisted. Oil not refined in Alberta refineries is assumed to be removed from Alberta. In 2024, removals (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen plus crude oil and pentanes plus) were 613.8 103 m3/d (3.9 106 bbl/d), with crude oil accounting for about 10%.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Growth in removals is expected to continue early into the forecast, growing at an average of 4% until 2027, reaching a peak of 73.7 103 m3/d (464.0 103 bbl/d). Mid- and long-term removals are expected to decline by an average of 2% each year, dropping to 65.0 103 m3/d (408.9 103 bbl/d) by 2034. This trend aligns with the forecasted decline in crude oil production and anticipated, relatively unchanged crude oil demand in Alberta.
Forecasted changes in crude oil removals are expected to be relatively minor as their share of total production averages 80% throughout the forecast, keeping in balance with Alberta demand. This consistency between Alberta refinery demand and removals suggests increases in pipeline capacity can support growth in production and removals early in the forecast.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Uncertainty and slowed economic activity induced by tariffs are expected to slightly lower Alberta energy consumption and crude oil demand to 17.6 103 m3/d (110.8 103 bbl/d). A 1% reduction in 2025 compared with the base case. Despite tariff removal in 2026, demand will remain hindered as economic activity slowly begins to readjust. Demand rebounds in 2027 and reaches the base case level in 2028, with economic activity returning to normal and uncertainty being eased.
Moreover, removals are expected to fall by 2% to 67.0 103 m3/d (421.7 103 bbl/d) compared with the base case in 2025, as reduced production and drilling activity hinder exports despite the declined domestic demand. Although tariffs are removed in 2026, the forgone drilling activity and reduced production will suppress growth. Removals will remain an average of 5% below the base case estimates across the forecast.
Figure S4.10 shows the difference in production, demand, and removals between the base case and tariff case forecasts.
