Updated June 2025
Ethane
In 2024
Production: Ethane production in Alberta grew 3.4% in 2024 compared with 2023, averaging 37.5 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 237.4 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Production growth for 2024 was supported by less ethane rejection (i.e., leaving ethane in the natural gas stream and not extracting it for use).
Demand: In 2024, Alberta’s demand for ethane grew to 42.8 103 m3/d (270.7 103 bbl/d). The demand growth for ethane in 2024 was consistent with increased use in the petrochemical sector.
Alberta imports ethane via the Vantage pipeline to meet the petrochemical sector’s demand. Vantage pipeline imports increased to 5.3 103 m3/d (33.4 103 bbl/d).
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Production: Ethane production is forecast to rise significantly, reaching 48.3 103 m3/d (305.7 103 bbl/d) by 2034. Raw natural gas production is projected to grow slightly over the next ten years. However, as ethane prices are expected to rise, improved recovery economics will grow the ethane supply as more ethane is extracted from natural gas (i.e., lower ethane rejection).
A part of Alberta’s ethane production has been rejected historically due to a lack of capacity in processing ethane and a share of demand being satisfied by contracted imports.
Demand: Ethane demand continues to grow and will be 45.5 103 m3/d (288.2 103 bbl/d) in 2025, reaching 54.2 103 m3/d (343.3 103 bbl/d) by 2034. Growth in demand over the forecast period is driven primarily by the Path2Zero expansion project, which will triple the existing ethylene and polyethylene capacity of Dow Chemical’s plant in Fort Saskatchewan. Although, Dow has announced a delay to its Path2Zero expansion project, the company remains committed to its long-term execution.
Figure S6.1 shows Alberta’s ethane supply from natural gas and demand in the base case.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Compared with the base case, ethane production in Alberta for the tariff case is expected to experience a marginal decline driven by lower natural gas production due to tariff-related uncertainties. The broad tariffs on non-oil-and-gas industries will negatively affect Alberta’s petrochemical industry and domestic ethane demand. Although ethane production and demand are lower than the base case, the relative declines are expected to be small due to the assumption that tariffs will only be in place for one year.
Production is forecast to be lower by 1.8%, decreasing to 39.3 103 m3/d (248.9 103 bbl/d) in 2025 compared with the base case. As market conditions stabilize following the assumed one-year tariffs, production is expected to recover. By 2026, tariff-related impacts would be minimal, and ethane production is projected to grow steadily over the forecast period, reaching 47.4 103 m3/d (300.2 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
Figure S6.2 shows Alberta’s ethane production difference between the base case and the tariff case.
Propane
In 2024
Production: Propane production in Alberta reached 40.5 103 m3/d (255.2 103 bbl/d) in 2024, up 8.2% from 2023, driven by increased yields from field gas-processing and fractionation facilities.
Demand: In 2024, Alberta’s demand for propane grew to 12.9 103 m3/d (81.5 103 bbl/d), up 8.6% from 2023. The Methanex Medicine Hat facility accounted for most of the increased demand for propane.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Production: Propane production is projected to grow over the forecast period, reflecting expected growth in natural gas production and continued targeting of liquids rich gas by producers. Propane production is expected to increase from 43.4 103 m3/d (273.4 103 bbl/d) in 2025 to 47.5 103 m3/d (299.3 103 bbl/d) by 2034. This gradual growth aligns with the production forecast for natural gas.
Demand: Propane demand in 2025 is projected to grow by 6.5% compared with 2024, increasing to 13.8 103 m3/d (86.8 103 bbl/d), mainly due to rising demand from the Methanex Medicine Hat facility.
Propane demand grows steadily throughout the forecast period, reaching 17.7 103 m3/d (111.3 103 bbl/d) by 2034. This increase is driven primarily by Pembina Pipeline Corp.’s feedstock requirements as part of the Redwater fractionation expansion.
Propane is exported by rail to the U.S. to meet agricultural and seasonal demand.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Propane production in Alberta is expected to experience modest impacts under the tariff case. Reduced upstream activity and lower natural gas production, driven by tariff-related uncertainty, may constrain output.
Under the tariff case, propane production is expected to be lower by 1.7%, decreasing to 42.7 103 m3/d (268.8 103 bbl/d) in 2025, compared with the base case. However, as market conditions improve and natural gas production recovers, propane output is projected to rise by 1.4%, on average, over the forecast period, reaching 46.7 103 m3/d (294.0 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
While we expect local propane demand to remain relatively stable, Alberta consistently produces more propane than it consumes domestically. The excess volume (i.e., removals) is primarily exported to the United States. Under the tariff case, these removals are expected to shrink, reflecting reduced cross-border trade activity.
The impact of tariffs on Alberta’s demand is projected to be minimal. Domestic propane demand is expected to be 2.2% lower than the base case in 2025 due to slightly reduced consumption across user industries. Demand is projected to grow to 17.2 103 m3/d (108.6 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
Figure S6.3 shows Alberta’s propane supply and demand differences between the base case and the tariff case.
Butane
In 2024
Production: Butane production in Alberta grew in 2024, averaging 24.3 103 m3/d (152.8 103 bbl/d). Excess supply is assumed to be stored or exported out of the province, including as a mixed product, such as liquified petroleum gas.
Demand: Butane demand fell marginally by 0.4% in 2024 to 19.4 103 m3/d (122.1 103 bbl/d), driven by a slight decline in its use as feedstock in the petrochemical industry. However, demand remained supported by blending requirements for nonupgraded bitumen.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Production: Butane production is projected to grow steadily throughout the forecast period at an annual average of 2.2%, reaching 30.2 103 m3/d (190.0 103 bbl/d) by 2034 as producers continue to target economically attractive liquids-rich gas plays like the Duvernay and Montney Formations.
Demand: Butane demand is also projected to maintain steady growth, reaching 22.7 103 m3/d (143.0 103 bbl/d) by 2034, driven primarily by consistent demand for blending with nonupgraded bitumen.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Alberta’s butane production is expected to face modest headwinds under the tariff case, driven by reduced natural gas output and associated feedstock availability. While the province generally produces more butane than is needed for local consumption, the balance between production and demand is expected to remain relatively stable.
Even in the tariff case, butane is still in demand, and the broader impact of tariffs on Alberta’s butane consumption is expected to be limited. Butane continues to be used for blending nonupgraded bitumen and in other industrial processes, supporting a consistent level of domestic demand.
In 2025, butane production is forecast to be lower by 1.7%, decreasing to 25.5 103 m3/d (160.4 103 bbl/d) compared with the base case, reflecting early impacts from market uncertainty. However, these effects are expected to diminish after one year, assuming the resolution of tariffs through diplomatic means. By 2034, butane production is projected to grow to 29.6 103 m3/d (186.6 103 bbl/d).
Demand is forecast to be 2.5% lower than the base case in 2025, largely due to reduced blending requirements for nonupgraded bitumen. As market conditions improve, demand is expected to recover, reaching 22.2 103 m3/d (139.5 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
Figure S6.4 shows Alberta’s butane supply and demand differences between the base case and the tariff case.
Pentanes Plus
In 2024
Production: Pentanes plus production in Alberta grew by 6.8% in 2024 compared with 2023, averaging 63.0 103 m3/d (396.2 103 bbl/d), driven by higher recovery from field plants.
Demand: In 2024, Alberta’s demand for pentanes plus grew to 119.4 103 m3/d (751.1 103 bbl/d), up 5.1% from 2023, as higher bitumen production drove the increase in diluent demand.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Production: Pentanes plus production is projected to grow over the forecast period, reaching a high of 74.9 103 m3/d (471.5 103 bbl/d) by 2034 as producers continue targeting the liquids-rich Montney and Duvernay Formations.
Demand: Demand for pentanes plus is projected to grow, reaching 148.4 103 m3/d (933.7 103 bbl/d) by 2034. This forecast correlates with bitumen production projections over the forecast period.
Imports of pentanes plus into Alberta are also expected to increase over the next ten years to meet the forecast shortfall between supply and demand for diluent. Alberta currently imports pentanes plus by rail and pipeline (e.g., Pembina Cochin Pipeline and Enbridge’s Southern Lights pipeline systems.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Pentanes plus production in Alberta is expected to marginally decline under the tariff case, primarily due to reduced natural gas output. Compared with the base case, production is forecast to be 1.5% lower in 2025, reaching 66.2 103 m3/d (416.8 103 bbl/d). As market conditions stabilize and upstream activity strengthens, production is projected to increase gradually, reaching 73.7 103 m3/d (464.0 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
Alberta relies on imports to meet domestic pentanes plus demand. Under the tariff case, higher import costs are expected to weigh on near- and mid-term consumption. Demand is forecast to be 2.2% lower in 2025 than the base case, reflecting reduced demand for diluent used in bitumen production. Following the assumed one-year duration of tariffs under this scenario, demand is expected to recover, rising steadily to reach 144.6 103 m3/d (909.8 103 bbl/d) by 2034.
Figure S6.5 shows Alberta’s pentanes plus supply and demand differences between the base case and the tariff case.
