Updated June 2025
Figure S1.1 shows historical and forecast prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
Summary
The average annual price of WTI in 2024 was US$75.72 per barrel (bbl), a decrease of 2.4% from 2023.
In the base case, the WTI price is forecast to decrease to US$66.00/bbl in 2025, improving to US$78.00/bbl in 2026 and reaching US$76.50 in 2034.
Under the tariff case, the WTI price is expected to fall to US$60.00/bbl in 2025 as tariffs weigh on international trade and slow global oil demand growth, improving to US$62.00/bbl in 2026, reaching US$70.00/bbl by 2034.
The low-price case assumes a drop in demand for transportation fuels due to a global economic recession and strong supply growth with WTI to average US$44.50/bbl in 2025, reaching US$49.00/bbl by 2034.
The high-price case considers a rapid economic expansion, higher than anticipated global demand, and constrained supply, resulting in an average price of US$92.50/bbl in 2025, reaching US$114.00/bbl in 2034.
In 2024
U.S. production: The price of WTI decreased in 2024 mostly due to concerns about weak oil demand growth in China, while global oil supply was relatively stable. U.S. oil production increased from 12.9 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2023 to a record 13.2 million bbl/d in 2024. Productivity continued to improve as U.S. drilling activity held relatively steady throughout the year.
OPEC+ supply management: To keep global oil prices stable, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allied non-member countries (collectively referred to as OPEC+) reduced crude oil supply by 1.4 million bbl/d in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency (U.S. EIA). This situation was achieved by increased member compliance with production targets and extending production cuts by member states plus voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have been in place since the COVID-19 pandemic and will end in 2025.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Global crude oil prices are expected to decline in 2025. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and the threat of U.S. tariffs against Canada and other countries is expected to weigh on crude oil demand throughout the first half of 2025. The decision by OPEC+ to increase their crude oil supply starting in April 2025 further weighs on global oil prices, including the WTI price.
Other factors influencing the near-term WTI price forecast include weak oil demand growth from China, which is partially offset by rising demand from India, fears of a possible recession, and non-OPEC+ production growth, including the U.S., Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Additionally, geopolitical tensions may ease in the Middle East and with Ukraine and Russia; however, more stringent U.S. trade sanctions on Russia, Iran, and Venezuela could restrict supply.
Under this scenario, global demand is expected to improve in 2026 as trade tensions ease, global economic growth accelerates, and demand for transportation fuels in India rises. However, continued crude oil production growth from non-OPEC+ countries is expected to limit price gains. By 2027, demand for crude oil is anticipated to increase, providing a modest rise in the WTI price.
The long-term forecast largely depends on the demand for petroleum liquid fuels. Despite advances in environmental policies, there is still uncertainty about the adoption rate of renewable energy and electric vehicles. Growing demand for petroleum-sourced feedstock in the petrochemical sector, particularly in developing economies, may offset the slowing demand for oil-derived transport fuels.
U.S. oil production: U.S. production is projected to continue rising to new heights in 2025 and 2026, although the pace of growth is expected to be slower than in past years. Most of the recent growth in U.S. production has come from shale and tight formations. Wells in these formations have steep decline curves, requiring significant increases in new drilling to maintain production levels. However, according to the U.S. EIA, advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques have increased well productivity. These advancements enable U.S. producers to extract more crude oil from each new well drilled while maintaining production for longer from older wells.
Geopolitical tensions: Geopolitical tensions remain a key uncertainty in the crude oil market. While the Israel-Hamas conflict may be resolved in 2025, the ongoing war in Ukraine may disrupt the crude oil supply from Russia. New U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian and Venezuela crude oil exports may result in lower supply in the market. Furthermore, potential U.S. import tariffs on a range of goods from oil and gas to steel and aluminum, and even consumer goods and retaliatory counter tariffs by affected exporting countries have led to greater volatility in the near-term WTI price.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Despite diplomatic efforts, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on many countries, including Canada, Mexico, China, and the European Union, sparking a broad-ranging trade war starting in April 2025 and lasting for one year. Back-and-forth tariff retaliation is expected, resulting in disrupted trade flows and dampened global oil demand growth, leading to a 21% year-over-year decline in the WTI price to US$60.00/bbl in 2025, 9.1% below the base case. It is expected to modestly rebound to US$62.00/bbl in 2026 as tariffs ease; however, the gap between the base case and the tariff case is expected to persist throughout the forecast period due to long-term structural changes in global oil demand, supply chains, and international trade. By 2034, the WTI price is anticipated to be US$70.00/bbl, 8.5% below the base case. All other crude oil supply and demand assumptions are unchanged compared with the base case price forecast.
Low- and High-Price Cases
The low- and high-price cases are estimated using a 95% confidence interval. The following factors affect the WTI price cases:
Low-price case:
- Global oil demand declines more than expected due to a potential global economic recession.
- OPEC+ production greatly exceeds the targets, increasing the global crude oil supply and inventories.
- U.S. shale production grows more than expected throughout the forecast period.
- Geopolitical tensions and conflicts subside allowing the global oil supply to grow.
High-price case:
- Global oil demand rises more than expected due to accelerating economic growth.
- OPEC+ cuts production more than expected, reducing the global crude oil supply and inventories.
- U.S. shale production grows less than expected throughout the forecast period.
- Geopolitical tensions and conflicts continue to disrupt the global oil supply.
