Updated June 2025
Within this section
- Crude oil prices
- Natural gas prices
- Capital expenditures
- U.S./Canadian exchange rate
- Methodology
- Data [XLSX]
Highlights of 2024
Oil and Gas Prices
WTI: The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased by 2.4% in 2024 due to concerns about weak global oil demand growth, while the global oil supply was relatively stable.
WCS: The price of Western Canadian Select (WCS) rose by 3.4% in 2024. Compared with 2023, the price differential between WCS and WTI narrowed to US$15 per barrel due to the startup of the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion in May 2024.
Henry Hub: The price of Henry Hub declined by 9.7% in 2024 due to elevated North American inventories and mild winter weather.
AECO-C: The price of AECO-C fell by 47% in 2024 due to elevated natural gas storage inventories in Alberta.
Total Capital Expenditures
Total capital expenditures remained steady in 2024, increasing slightly to Cdn$30.9 billion.
Despite the decrease in energy prices in 2024, the U.S. demand for Alberta’s oil increased by 2%, reaching 1.3 billion barrels1. The increased demand triggered strong growth in conventional and oil sands drilling and mining supporting investment levels. Capital expenditures are projected to remain below the 2014 peak over the 10-year forecast period.
Exchange Rate
The U.S. and Canadian dollar exchange rate averaged US$0.73 in 2024 compared with US$0.74 in 2023.
Tariff Scenarios
Because of significant uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, this year’s report examines two scenarios: a short-term tariff uncertainty scenario (base case) and a one-year tariff scenario (tariff case). The primary difference between these scenarios lies in their tariff assumptions.
- Base case: This scenario assumes business as usual and no tariffs. However, the U.S. tariff threats on energy products (oil and gas) persist throughout the first half of 2025 but are ultimately averted through diplomatic negotiations by midyear. Consequently, energy supply and demand are minimally affected.
- Tariff case: This scenario assumes a 10% U.S. tariff on energy products (oil and gas) and 25% tariffs on other Canadian goods imposed in the first half of 2025 despite diplomatic efforts. This scenario includes subsequent U.S. and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, other nontariff measures2, and additional U.S. tariffs on other trading partners. All tariffs and nontariff measures between Canada and the United States persist until the end of the first quarter of 2026 before mostly being phased out as the review or renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. It is expected tariffs will have some long-term effects and structural changes to the global economy (changes in trade and investment flows).
These tariff assumptions affect prices, costs, commodity profitability, investment, supply and demand, project risk factors, and commercial start dates (where applicable) for most chapters of the report, including comparisons of the outcomes of these scenarios
1 Statistics Canada. Table 25-10-0063-01 Supply and disposition of crude oil and equivalent
2 Nontariff measures can include quotas or restrictions on imported goods (i.e., liquor), export taxes on electricity, and changes in consumer and business behaviour (i.e., buying Canadian).
