Updated June 2025
Figure S3.3 shows the average daily production of raw bitumen in Alberta from surface mining and in situ projects in the base case.
In 2024
In 2024, mined bitumen production increased by 4.4% to 273.4 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1720.5 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Most mines had increased levels of production, taking advantage of increased pipeline takeaway capacity from Trans Mountain expansion. The mines that accounted for most of the 2024 production growth are Fort Hills, Horizon, and Jackpine. Mining accounts for 48% of total raw bitumen production.
Highlights
Production data by project are reported in the ST39: Alberta Mineable Oil Sands Plant Statistics Monthly Supplement. The following are the 2024 highlights for mined bitumen production:
- Production fluctuated throughout the year, primarily attributable to planned maintenance at several mining sites.
- The strong mining performance was primarily led by optimizations, which drove efficiencies and improved productivity, leading to record production from nearly all mines.
- Production at Suncor’s mines rose during the year due to the company’s optimized mining operations at Fort Hills and fewer planned maintenance activities at their Base Mine.
- At Horizon, high utilization rates and the completion of the maintenance optimization project to reduce downtime contributed to achieving its highest production level in 2024.
- The Jackpine mine witnessed its highest production since 2021 due to increased operational efficiencies.
- There was some operator consolidation during the year. CNRL acquired an additional 20% of the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) in December 2024, bringing its total working interest to 90%.
Base Case Forecast 2025 to 2034
A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section.
Mined bitumen production will continue to grow in 2025. By 2034, mined bitumen production is forecast to be 288.8 103 m3/d (1817.1 103 bbl/d). From 2025 onwards, the estimated average annual growth rate is expected to be about 1%, lower than the average annual 6% growth rate observed during the past decade.
Most of the near-term growth will come from existing facility optimization due to increased productivity, improved market access, and relatively favourable market conditions. Over the latter part of the forecast, expansions and debottlenecking projects are expected to continue driving production growth.
Expansions, pit replacements, and debottlenecking benefit from lower costs by leveraging existing infrastructure, workforce, and materials. Producers will continue identifying and implementing cost-saving measures to enhance efficiency.
No new greenfield mines are expected to be constructed and become operational within the forecast period. Based on the crude bitumen supply costs estimates for 2024, the current price environment and more stringent environmental policies will not encourage the development of new mining projects.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
In this scenario, tariffs on oil and gas exports and other sectors are anticipated to last for one year, reducing mining competitiveness with lower oil prices and higher production costs relative to the base case. However, these impacts on mining production are relatively small as only a few mining expansions are proposed, and many U.S. refineries continue to accept bitumen. Mining production is expected to be slightly lower considering the economic and trade headwinds.
Although the overall trajectory resembles the base case, mined bitumen production in the tariff case is expected to be lower by 1.4% from the base case to 276.5 103 m3/d (1740.2 103 bbl/d) in 2025. In the long term, due to the likelihood of a short tariff period, the impact is expected to diminish. In 2034, mining bitumen production is expected to grow to 287.3 103 m3/d (1807.8 103 bbl/d).
Figure S3.4 shows the comparison between the base case and the tariff case.
