Updated June 2025
Figure S3.6 shows the average daily production of upgraded bitumen in Alberta under the base case.
In 2024
Upgraded bitumen production increased by 4.5% to 196.6 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1237.2 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d).
Highlights
Production data by project are reported in the ST39: Alberta Mineable Oil Sands Plant Statistics Monthly Supplement. The following are the 2024 highlights for upgraded bitumen production:
- There was a broad-based increase in upgraded bitumen production across all upgraders in 2024 due to high utilization rates.
- The Suncor upgrader produced record levels of synthetic crude oil (SCO) in 2024 through operational efficiencies and increases in production at the base mine.
- At Horizon, high utilization rates and the completion of the maintenance optimization project to reduce downtime contributed to achieving its highest production level in 2024.
- The Scotford upgrader achieved its highest growth in production from 2021 levels through piping modifications during the completion of the debottleneck project.
- Due to strong integration with Suncor's other oil sands assets, the Syncrude upgrader also had higher production of SCO last year.
Table S3.3 shows upgraded bitumen production by upgrader.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section. Upgraded bitumen production volumes in the base case are expected to continue to grow in the near term, in line with favourable market conditions. By 2034, upgraded bitumen production is forecast to reach 204.5 103 m3/d (1286.8 103 bbl/d).
Most of the growth in upgraded production is expected to occur in the early years of the forecast. Operators are expected to maximize utilization rates and pursue optimization projects driven by attractive margins for SCO and favourable market conditions.
As increases in raw bitumen production outpace marginal additions to upgrading capacity, the share of upgraded bitumen in Alberta is expected to decline from 41% in 2024 to 38% by 2034. No new upgrading facilities are assumed to come on stream during the forecast period.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
In the tariff case, the impact on upgraded production is expected to be limited, due to the limited number of announced expansion projects and already high utilization rates at existing upgraders. Therefore, upgraded bitumen production is expected to closely follow the trajectory of raw bitumen production in the base case.
In 2025, upgraded bitumen production in the tariff case is expected to be lower by 0.6% from the base case to 197.4 103 m3/d (1242.2 103 bbl/d). In 2034, upgraded bitumen production is expected to be 203.3 103 m3/d (1279.6 103 bbl/d).
Figure S3.7 shows the comparison between the base case and the tariff case.
