Updated June 2025
Summary
Demand for subbituminous coal is expected to be near zero in Alberta as coal-fired power plants are either converted to natural gas or decommissioned.
International demand is expected to remain stable for metallurgical and thermal coals, especially from Asian markets and other developing regions over the forecast.
Subbituminous Coal
Demand for subbituminous coal is expected to be near zero in Alberta as coal-fired power plants are either converted to natural gas or decommissioned. The last coal-fired power plant in Alberta, Capital Power’s Genesee generating station, was fully converted to natural gas in June 2024.
Retirement of Coal-Fired Power Plants
The retirement and conversion of Alberta’s coal-fired power plant in 2024 significantly affected the subbituminous coal production, as nearly all subbituminous coal is for intraprovincial power generation.
In 2018, the Government of Canada amended the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations, which set emissions performance standards for coal-fired electricity power plants by requiring all generation units to meet a performance standard of 420 tonnes of carbon dioxide per gigawatt hour of electricity produced (t of CO2/GWh) by 2030. The amendments accelerated the phaseout of coal-fired power generation by 2030 to meet Canada’s commitment to reduce overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The outlook for subbituminous coal production has declined due to an accelerated phaseout of coal among electricity generators. TransAlta phased out its coal-fired power generation in Alberta in 2021, resulting in the closure of the Highvale mine. Heartland Generation also phased out its coal-fired power generation in 2021 with the closure of the Sheerness and Paintearth mines. Capital Power completed the conversion of its Genesee generating station to natural gas in 2024, prompting the closure of the Genesee mine.
Metallurgical Bituminous Coal
The Grande Cache mine produced 0.5 megatonnes (Mt) of metallurgical coal for export to South Korea in 2024. Asia remains Alberta’s primary market for metallurgical coal. However, the long distance from the mine to market creates a competitive disadvantage for Alberta’s exporting coal producers.
Thermal Bituminous Coal
Asia continues to be the largest source of demand for Alberta’s thermal bituminous coal for power generation. Despite international demand, growth in exports beyond 2025 will depend on whether new projects in Alberta proceed.
Exports
Alberta’s Coal Valley and Vista Coal mines produced 7.0 Mt of thermal bituminous coal in 2024, of which two countries accounted for most of the exports:
- South Korea: 4.0 Mt
- Japan 2.4 Mt
According to the International Energy Agency, global coal demand in 2024 grew by 1%. Asia saw increased coal demand for power generation led by some emerging countries such as India, Vietnam, and Indonesia where demand for electricity grew alongside with population and economic growth. China is important to the global coal market, accounting for 56% of global demand, and will continue using coal for electricity generation while diversifying its power sector with renewables and nuclear. Other international suppliers are expected to supply most of the Asian demand for thermal bituminous coal.
