Updated June 2023
Production Forecast
Each commodity supply forecast
- included production from new and existing projects,
- considered all approved and applied-for projects, and
- assigned risk factors based on the project status.
The projects considered in the commodity supply forecasts were assessed for the likelihood of meeting the on stream date and stated production capacity. Some projects, although considered, were not included in the ten-year forecast due to the high level of uncertainty of them being on stream within the next decade.
Forecast considerations and factors affecting each specific commodity are described below.
Hydrogen
Trend analysis was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2032. All existing projects assumed would continue producing at normal production levels over the forecast.
The forecasts for hydrogen considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as complementary policies and derisking projects through government partnerships.
Geothermal
Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) modelling1was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2032. All existing projects assumed would continue producing at normal production levels over the forecast.
The forecasts for geothermal resources considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as the cost of competing renewable energy sources.
Helium
In projecting helium production, we combined expected production from active wells with new wells placed on production. The number of new wells placed on production, their average initial productivity, and decline rates are the main determining factors in projecting production volumes. ARMA modelling was used to determine the pace of production expansion out to 2032.
Lithium
Trend analysis was used to determine the pace of production and new wells placed on production to forecast lithium production. The forecasts for lithium considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as the number of new wells placed on production and technology development.
Data
Hydrogen, Lithium, and Geothermal Data
All 2022 data collected was based on AER research and publicly available data. There is no official data source for hydrogen, lithium, or geothermal in the province.
Helium Data
All 2022 data were as reported by the industry until the end of December and does not capture any subsequent amendments. We used helium production volumes and active well counts submitted in Petrinex.
1 A statistical method of predicting future performance based on past performance.