Updated June 2025
Production Forecast
The methodology for each commodity supply forecast
- included production from new and existing projects,
- considered all approved and applied-for projects, and
- assigned risk factors based on the project status
The projects considered in the commodity supply forecasts were assessed for the likelihood of meeting the commercial start-up date and stated production capacity. Some projects, although considered, were not included in the ten-year forecast due to the high uncertainty about their likelihood of becoming operational within the next decade.
Forecast considerations and factors affecting each specific commodity are described below.
Hydrogen
Time series modelling was used to determine the future pace of production expansion. All existing projects were assumed to continue producing at normal production levels over the forecast period.
The forecasts for hydrogen considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as complementary policies and de-risking projects through government partnerships.
Geothermal
Time series modelling was used to determine the future pace of production expansion.
The forecasts for geothermal resources considered factors that may affect the pace of development.
Helium
In projecting helium production, we combined expected production from active wells with new wells placed on production. The number of new wells placed on production is determined by the regression of commodity price, average initial productivity, and decline rates. Production volumes are estimated based on the new wells projection.
Lithium
Time series modelling was used to determine the future pace of production and the number of new wells placed on production. The lithium forecasts considered factors that may affect the pace of development, such as the number of new wells placed on production and technology development.
Data
Hydrogen and Lithium Data
Hydrogen and lithium data are based on AER research and publicly available data.
Helium Data
Historical data are as reported by industry in Petrinex until the end of December. It does not include any subsequent amendments.
Geothermal Data
Historical geothermal production was calculated using Alberta Electric System Operator hourly electricity generation data.
