Updated June 2025
Within this section
The Alberta Energy Regulator’s (AER’s) mandate has expanded to include new areas of resource development, such as geothermal, brine-hosted mineral resources (including lithium) and rock-hosted mineral resources. This expansion is part of the Alberta government’s Alberta Recovery Plan to diversify the economy and accelerate growth in new and emerging resources. The AER also regulates helium production and energy-related facilities producing hydrogen. We have set up a regulatory framework for these emerging resources and are working to understand the development of these resources and map the province’s resource potential.
Tariff Scenarios
Because of significant uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, this year’s report examines two scenarios: a short-term tariff uncertainty scenario (base case) and a one-year tariff scenario (tariff case). The primary difference between these scenarios lies in their tariff assumptions.
- Base case: This scenario assumes business as usual and no tariffs. However, the U.S. tariff threats on energy products (oil and gas) persist throughout the first half of 2025 but are ultimately averted through diplomatic negotiations by midyear. Consequently, energy supply and demand are minimally affected
- Tariff case: This scenario assumes a 10% U.S. tariff on energy products (oil and gas) and 25% tariffs on other Canadian goods imposed in the first half of 2025 despite diplomatic efforts. This scenario includes subsequent U.S. and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, other nontariff measures1, and additional U.S. tariffs on other trading partners. All tariffs and nontariff measures between Canada and the United States persist until the end of the first quarter of 2026 before mostly being phased out as the review or renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. It is expected tariffs will have some long-term effects and structural changes to the global economy (changes in trade and investment flows).
These tariff assumptions affect prices, costs, commodity profitability, investment, supply and demand, project risk factors, and commercial start dates (where applicable) for most chapters of the report, including comparisons of the outcomes of these scenarios.
Hydrogen
Hydrogen is an energy carrier and one of the most abundant elements in the solar system. Hydrogen is a colourless, odourless, and flammable gas found almost everywhere on Earth but only bonded with other elements, such as carbon, nitrogen, and oxygen.
Hydrogen applications are diverse, including residential and commercial heating, power generation, energy storage, transportation, and industrial processes (e.g., fertilizers and bitumen upgrading).
Hydrogen in Alberta is derived mainly from natural gas. The carbon dioxide produced by the process is either vented to the atmosphere or captured and stored for future use or permanently sequestered.
Geothermal
Geothermal energy is the natural heat energy found deep within the Earth. It is a renewable energy resource with minimal environmental and carbon footprints. Geothermal energy can provide reliable baseload power with fewer fluctuations in output than other forms of renewable energy because the heat from the Earth’s core is always available.
As public policies target opportunities to reduce the carbon footprint, we expect geothermal energy to gain a larger share of the energy mix.
Companies produce geothermal energy using two basic methods: open- and closed-loop technology.
- Open-loop technology relies on hot or warm groundwater as the heat source. Once the heat is extracted, the cooled water is either reinjected into the geothermal reservoir for reheating or expelled from the system.
- Closed-loop technology relies on a working fluid circulated through a closed wellbore in a hot subsurface formation. The closed wellbore can be two to seven kilometres below the surface, possibly deeper. The heated fluid circulates to the surface where the heat is extracted. The cooled fluid is circulated back through the wellbore for reheating.
Helium
Helium is the second-lightest and second-most abundant element in the solar system. It is created by the natural radioactive decay of heavy radioactive elements like thorium and uranium within the Earth’s mantle and crust. Helium is a non-renewable resource, primarily attributed to its tendency to escape into the atmosphere upon release—a consequence of its inherent physical properties. Helium can be produced as a by-product of natural gas production or directly from dedicated helium wells in certain geological formations.
Helium has many uses in scientific research, medical technology, and industrial applications. Helium is used to cool superconducting magnets, such as those in magnetic resonance imaging scanners. Another well-known use of helium is as a lifting gas in balloons and airships.
Lithium
Lithium is considered the lightest of all metals and the lightest solid element under standard conditions. It does not naturally occur as a pure element but in compounds, usually as ionic compounds in mineral deposits, including underground brines in Alberta.
Historically, lithium was used for ceramics and glass, lubricating greases, polymer production, aluminum smelting, etc. Today, the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, electronics, and grid power storage is driving the capital expenditure in lithium extraction.
Companies and research groups in Alberta are testing direct lithium extraction (DLE) technology. DLE allows access to Alberta’s lithium-brine potential in existing oil and gas reservoirs. This technology enables the recovery of lithium concentrate, which is the first step in the lithium value chain.
1 Nontariff measures can include quotas or restrictions on imported goods (i.e., liquor), export taxes on electricity, and changes in consumer and business behaviour (i.e., buying Canadian).
