Crude Oil

Updated June 2025

Within this section

Highlights

Production

Crude oil production increased by 3.5% in 2024, averaging 84.2 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 530 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d). Crude oil accounted for 12% of total marketable oil production, including bitumen and pentanes plus in Alberta.

Number of wells

After a decrease in new wells placed on production in 2023, new wells rebounded by 23% in 2024. This rebound was driven by increased activity due to favourable oil prices, low interest rates, increased drilling in productive formations, the commencement of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion, and ongoing improvements in operational efficiency. 

The number of new wells placed on production is projected to decrease slightly from 3385 in 2024 to 3080 by 2034, with most new wells targeting the Cardium and Montney Formations and the Mannville Group. 

Demand

In 2024, Alberta refinery demand for total oil (upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen, crude oil, and pentanes plus) was 91.4 103 m3/d (575 103 bbl/d). Crude oil accounted for 20% of Alberta’s refinery throughput at 17.8 103 m3/d (112.3 103 bbl/d). The remaining crude oil produced was removed from the province. Without new refineries or significant refinery expansions planned, Alberta’s demand for crude oil is expected to remain relatively unchanged with stable refinery throughput. Crude oil removals are projected to increase over the forecast.

Tariff Scenarios

Because of significant uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariff policies, this year’s report examines two scenarios: a short-term tariff uncertainty scenario (base case) and a one-year tariff scenario (tariff case). The primary difference between these scenarios lies in their tariff assumptions.

  1. Base case: This scenario assumes business as usual and no tariffs. However, the U.S. tariff threats on energy products (oil and gas) persist throughout the first half of 2025 but are ultimately averted through diplomatic negotiations by midyear. Consequently, energy supply and demand are minimally affected.
  2. Tariff case: This scenario assumes a 10% U.S. tariff on energy products (oil and gas) and 25% tariffs on other Canadian goods imposed in the first half of 2025 despite diplomatic efforts. This scenario includes subsequent U.S. and Canadian retaliatory tariffs, other nontariff measures1, and additional U.S. tariffs on other trading partners. All tariffs and nontariff measures between Canada and the United States persist until the end of the first quarter of 2026 before mostly being phased out as the review or renegotiation of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement. It is expected tariffs will have some long-term effects and structural changes to the global economy (changes in trade and investment flows).

These tariff assumptions affect prices, costs, commodity profitability, investment, supply and demand, project risk factors, and commercial start dates (where applicable) for most chapters of the report, including comparisons of the outcomes of these scenarios. 

1Nontariff measures can include quotas or restrictions on imported goods (i.e., liquor), export taxes on electricity, and changes in consumer and business behaviour (i.e., buying Canadian).