Updated June 2025
Figure S3.11 shows the historical and forecast of Alberta’s demand and disposition of marketable bitumen in the base case.
Demand
In 2024
The five operating refineries in Alberta had a total processing capacity of 91.4 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 575.0 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d) in 2024. Their combined utilization rate was 103%, handling an estimated daily average of
- 56.9 103 m3/d (357.9 103 bbl/d) of upgraded bitumen,
- 11.4 103 m3/d (71.4 103 bbl/d) of nonupgraded bitumen,
- 17.8 103 m3/d (112.3 103 bbl/d) of crude oil, and
- 5.3 103 m3/d (33.4 103 bbl/d) of pentanes plus.
The total estimated Alberta demand in 2024 for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen (which includes refinery demand and fuel demand used for operations and processing in oil sands projects) was 76.3 103 m3/d (480.0 103 bbl/d), a 7.5% increase from 2023.
The Scotford upgrader had throughput above their nameplate capacity in 2024, while the Sturgeon refinery was below its capacity when processing nonupgraded bitumen.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Alberta’s demand for upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen is forecast to be 76.5 103 m3/d (481.2 103 bbl/d) by 2034. This stable trajectory is expected as no significant expansions or new refineries are likely within the forecast horizon. Upgraded bitumen continues to account for most of the total bitumen demand in the province.
Learn more about refineries in Alberta in the Plants and Facilities section.
Removals
In 2024
The breakdown of total oil removals in 2024 was as follows:
- upgraded bitumen, 131.7 103 m3/d (828.6 103 bbl/d)
- nonupgraded bitumen, 323.1 103 m3/d (2033.4 103 bbl/d)
- crude oil, 66.4 103 m3/d (417.7 103 bbl/d)
- pentanes plus as diluent for bitumen transportation, 119.4 103 m3/d (751.1 103 bbl/d)
Upgraded bitumen removals increased by 2.1% due to rising production. Nonupgraded removals increased by 4.6% compared with 2023, mostly driven by the growth in nonupgraded bitumen production and increased pipeline takeaway capacity as Trans Mountain expansion became operational.
Base Case Forecast for 2025 to 2034
Upgraded and nonupgraded removals are expected to increase by 2034, alongside rising production and improved pipeline capacity over the forecast period, while Alberta’s demand remains relatively stable.
The following are the removals in 2034 and the percent changes relative to 2024 levels:
- upgraded bitumen, 139.4 103 m3/d (877.0 103 bbl/d) (5.8% increase)
- nonupgraded bitumen, 375.4 103 m3/d (2362.2 103 bbl/d) (16.2% increase)
- crude oil, 65.0 103 m3/d (408.9 103 bbl/d) (2.1% increase)
- pentanes plus as diluent, 148.4 103 m3/d (933.7 103 bbl/d) (24.3% increase)
Upgraded and nonupgraded bitumen will continue to account for most of Alberta’s oil removals. Alberta’s crude bitumen removals are primarily sent to the U.S. by pipeline and rail, with a portion sent to the U.S. west coast or other international destinations through shipments by sea.
Learn more about petroleum pipelines and rail transportation in Alberta in the Pipelines and Other Infrastructure section.
One-Year Tariff Scenario (Tariff Case)
Alberta demand is expected to decline slightly in the short term due to the broader economic slowdown following the imposition of tariffs on oil and gas and other sectors. However, the relatively stable driving demand and limited availability of close substitutes to petroleum products across many industries are expected to cushion the decline.
Relative to the base case, Alberta demand is expected to be slightly lower by 1.4%, reaching 75.2 103 m3/d (473.5 103 bbl/d) before returning to the base case trajectory after 2027.
For removals, we expect a marginal decline from the base case, given the sustained demand from U.S. refineries. A significant capacity of refineries in PADD 2, 3, and 4 is specifically designed to process bitumen.
Compared to the base case, total removals for bitumen are expected to be lower by 2.0%, reaching 459.7 103 m3/d (2892.6 103 bbl/d) in 2025. In the long term, removals of Alberta crude bitumen may soften depending on the duration and intensity of the tariffs and whether the U.S. (Canada’s primary market for crude bitumen) can find alternative sources for heavy crude.
Figure S3.12 shows total production, Alberta demand, and removals in the base case and tariff case.
