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Updated June 2023

 

Figure S3.1 shows the average daily production of crude bitumen in Alberta from in situ projects and surface mining.

In 2022

In situ bitumen production increased by 2.1 per cent to 270.0 thousand cubic metres per day (103 m3/d) or 1699.3 thousand barrels per day (103 bbl/d).

In situ production increases occurred across all recovery methods. As shown in Figure S3.2 and Table S3.2, in situ production increases in 2022 were primarily attributable to growth in the Athabasca region. Volumes increased slightly in the Cold Lake region, where capital expenditure in recent years has been lower compared with the Athabasca region. In situ production also rose in the Peace River region as companies tapped into high-quality deposits.

Crude Bitumen In Siti Table S3-2

Highlights

Production data by project are reported in the ST53: Alberta In Situ Oil Sands Production Summary. The following are the 2022 highlights for in situ bitumen production:

  • In situ production continued to grow in 2022 with favourable oil prices.
  • With new investment focussed on existing sites rather than new projects, multiple in situ operations hit record production levels as productivity increased due to optimization work and debottlenecking.
  •  Activity rose in the Athabasca region where most of the in situ bitumen production occurs. Cenovus continued its optimization of Christina Lake and Foster Creek facilities, adding more than 20 000 barrels per day of production. Long Lake returned to its previous production levels.
  • Production was slightly up in the Cold Lake region. In this region, the focus remains on improving productivity through optimization projects and solvent injection technology.
  • Primary bitumen production advanced considerably in the Peace River region as companies, such as Baytex Energy and Obsidian Energy, increased production.

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

A list of proposed projects considered in the forecast is included in the methodology section.

In line with oil price forecasts, in situ bitumen production volumes are expected to grow in the near term (Table S3.1). By 2032, in situ output is forecast to be 358.6 103 m3/d (2256.8 103 bbl/d), representing an annual growth of about 3 per cent.

Near-term production growth is based on favourable market conditions and producers expanding their existing facilities. Production growth is expected from approved projects coming online by the end of the decade.

Table S3.1 Crude Bitumen production highlights

In situ production will mainly drive the forecast bitumen production growth, supported by pipeline developments. Takeaway capacity on the province’s pipeline infrastructure is forecast to improve in the next few years through pipeline enhancement projects and the completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion project scheduled to be in service in 2024. Growth later in the forecast is supported by improved market access and higher oil prices.

Based on 2022 crude bitumen supply costs estimates, in situ expansions continue to be a better economic option than new in situ projects and mining projects. Given the crude oil price forecasts, most of new production will likely come from situ expansions.

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