Legal Header

Updated June 2023

Figure S1.2 shows historical and forecast prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).


The average annual price of WTI in 2022 was US$94.23 per barrel (bbl), an increase of 39 per cent from 2021.

The base-price case for WTI is projected to decrease to US$77.00/bbl in 2023, rebounding to US$79.00/bbl in 2024 and reaching US$85.77 by 2032.

The low-price case assumes lower demand for transportation fuels, with WTI to average US$46.92/bbl in 2023, US$47.66/bbl in 2024, and US$47.45/bbl by 2032.

The high-price case considers a rapid economic expansion, higher than anticipated global demand, and constrained supply, resulting in an average price of US$126.37/bbl in 2023, US$130.94/bbl in 2024, and US$155.04/bbl by 2032.

In 2022

U.S. production: The price of WTI increased in 2022 due to the supply shock from the war in Ukraine. U.S. oil production increased from 11.3 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2021 to 11.9 million bbl/d in 2022. The increase reflects higher drilling activity and well completions as operators responded to the elevated prices. U.S. oil production in 2022 remained below the 2019 peak despite the annual increase.

OPEC+ supply management: In response to supply disruptions of Russian oil to Europe and high oil prices, OPEC increased production by about 2.5 million bbl/d in 2022. However, because of growing weakness in global demand and rising crude oil inventories in the second half of the year, OPEC+ agreed to cut their production targets starting in November 2022.

Forecast for 2023 to 2032

The WTI price is anticipated to be affected by demand-side factors, including high inflation, interest rate hikes by central banks worldwide, and the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in China. On the supply side, WTI prices will depend on the duration and adherence to the OPEC+ production quotas, sanctions on Russia’s crude oil supply, and growth in U.S. shale production.

The forecast for 2023 assumes that WTI prices will be supported by several factors, including OPEC+’s commitment to decrease supply, the gradual expansion in U.S. production, a slowdown of global economic activity or a recession in the developed world, and continued supply disruptions caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2024, demand is expected to rebound with the resumption of global economic growth. 

Despite advances in environmental policies, it is too early to predict a rapid decline in oil demand by the end of the forecast. Growing demand for feedstock in the petrochemical sector, particularly in developing economies, may offset the slowing demand for transport fuels.

Balancing global supply and demand: According to the International Energy Agency, the world oil demand prepandemic (2019) was about 100 million bbl/d. The agency forecasts that demand could return to that level by 2023. Given the supply and demand imbalance and the lingering uncertainty around Russian crude oil supply and economic growth, the near-term price of WTI is expected to remain volatile.

U.S. oil production: U.S. production is projected to increase in 2023 and 2024, reflecting increases in the number of new wells. Most U.S. production gains in recent years have come from shale/tight plays. Wells producing in shale/tight plays have steep decline curves, requiring significant increases in new drilling to maintain production levels. U.S. oil production is anticipated to grow and reach new heights in 2023 and 2024, accounting for lead times between investing capital and producing.

Geopolitical tensions: Geopolitical tension remains a key uncertainty in the oil market due to the war in Ukraine.

Low- and High-Price Cases

The low- and high-price cases are estimated using a 90 per cent confidence interval. The following factors affect the WTI price cases:

Low-price case:

  • Global oil demand declines more than expected due to an economic slowdown.
  • OPEC+ production exceeds the target output level.
  • U.S. shale production continues to grow throughout the forecast period.

High-price case:

  • Chinese oil demand rebounds faster than expected from the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions.
  • Economic activity rebounds faster than expected, significantly supporting global oil demand in the near term.
  • The price of WTI is bolstered by cuts in global oil production led by OPEC+, effectively reducing inventories.
  • Geopolitical conflicts disrupting further regional oil supply.

Learn More